The USD/VND exchange rate is forecast to gradually cool off by the end of 2025, thanks to the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will start a rate‑cutting cycle. However, exchange‑rate pressure remains due to domestic factors and international instability.
On July 3, the central exchange rate set a new record at 25.091 VND per USD. Commercial banks listed buy‑sell USD rates near the ceiling, with adjustments rising from 12 to 90 VND per USD compared to prior sessions. From the beginning of the year to June 24, the VND has depreciated by about 2.6–3 % in the official market.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar on the international market has been weakening, driven by expectations that the Fed will cut rates early after May 2025 U.S. inflation data fell short of forecasts. Overall CPI and core CPI increased by only 0.1 % from the previous month, below market predictions. President Trump’s proposed tax cuts and large spending package also put further pressure on public debt, strengthening the likelihood that the Fed will ease policy in September and December. The trade agreement reached between the U.S. and Vietnam before the final deadline for new tariffs helped calm market sentiment.
Despite a weaker USD, domestic exchange rates remain pressured by strong seasonal foreign‑currency demand, especially in Q3 and Q4 when import activity increases. In the first five months of the year, exports grew 14 % while imports rose 17 %, turning the trade balance into a deficit. Companies have increased their USD holdings, pushing the exchange rate against the international trend. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. military intervention in Iran, have driven oil prices higher. If oil prices exceed $100 per barrel, domestic inflationary pressure will rise, limiting room for monetary‑policy easing.
In light of these developments, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continues to manage policy flexibly to stabilize the market. The reissuance of Treasury bills from June 24 and the injection of roughly 95 trillion VND into open‑market operations (OMO) from June 24–30 illustrates an effort to balance exchange‑rate control with maintaining systemic liquidity. According to experts, this is a prudent move, reducing short‑term exchange‑rate pressure without reversing monetary‑policy direction.
Forecast for the second half of 2025, if the Fed cuts rates along its expected path, pressure on the VND will ease. The likelihood of export recovery, especially from the FDI sector, will also support a more stable exchange rate. According to UOB, the USD/VND rate is projected to reach around 26,300 VND in Q3 and gradually decline to 25,700 VND by Q2 2026.
However, UOB also notes that the SBV will act more cautiously on easing policy because the current exchange rate remains considerably weaker than regional counterparts. Domestic inflation stands at about 3.1 %, below the 4.5 % target, creating room for the SBV to maintain stable, flexible policy in the near term.